(FORTUNE Small Business) – Here's a Juicy Election-season mystery: Has America gained or lost jobs under President Bush? In one survey by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), businesses report 1.1 million fewer employees than when Bush took office. But another BLS survey, which asks ordinary Americans, "Do you have a job?," finds we have netted 1.9 million new jobs.[*] These so-called payroll and household surveys have not always marched in lockstep, but rarely have they diverged so sharply for so long. The three million--worker difference puzzles economists, but that hasn't quelled partisans eager to play fuzzy electoral economics. Some leading theories:

THEY'RE ENTREPRENEURS. Some analysts suggest that new small businesses may be too nascent to show up on the employer survey. But economists at the Small Business Administration and the National Federation of Independent Business say they haven't seen any data to support a spike in startups. We thought we had found the missing link when outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that among departed corporate executives who earned more than $100,000 at their previous jobs, 18% launched startups last quarter, up from 12% in the first quarter. Alas, a red herring: Income aside, the overall rate of executives founding their own firms is hardly higher than it was two years ago.

THEY'RE FREELANCERS. In uncertain times—and with health insurance costs soaring —companies find it cheaper to hire independent contractors who will work without benefits. BLS data do show an increase of roughly 1.2 million self-employed workers since January 2001. This theory has a curious bipartisan appeal. Wonks within the White House argue that more Americans are choosing to become free agents in today's gadget-enabled, work-from-anywhere economy. Democrats, meanwhile, see a decline in both the quantity and quality of jobs. According to the Senate Joint Economic Committee, the freelance explanation could account for a third of the gap, but the rest eerily remains "unexplained."

THEY'RE FIBBING. A laid-off coal miner will tell you he's unemployed. But what self-respecting white-collar worker wants to admit she's all too familiar with the daytime TV lineup? When the BLS calls, she says, "I'm a consultant." —JULIE SLOANE