(MONEY Magazine) – After U.S. airlines lost $1.2 billion in the first half of '92, you'd think the last thing they would do is wage another fare war. But that's exactly what they did during the summer. In fact, they allowed passengers to fly for about 10 cents a mile, the lowest price in more than a decade, according to the Air Transport Association, a Washington, D.C. trade group. And here's the kicker: You ain't seen nothin' yet. More 25% to 30% fare cuts are on the runway. ''The bottom line is that airlines are going to lose a lot of money this year,'' says John Ash at Global Aviation, a consulting firm. ''And there are bargains galore for consumers.'' -- How can I be sure of getting a good deal? ''Since fare changes come at blinding speed now, you must rely on a travel agent,'' advises Alan Fredericks of Travel Weekly, an industry newsletter. ''But not just any agent, preferably one who utilizes a fare-search system.'' Those computerized programs such as AQUA Software, AccuFare and Aero automatically hunt for a lower fare between the time the ticket is booked and it is issued, typically a few days for business travelers and two weeks or so for vacationers. A recent Travel Weekly/Harris Associates study revealed that search systems generally discover a lower rate for an astounding one out of four tickets. ''An agent using our software can find a lower fare around 25% to 30% of the time,'' claims Richard Eastman, AQUA Software's chief executive officer. ''The average savings is 28% of the ticket cost, anywhere from $68 to $130.'' AQUA Software is employed by such behemoths as Thomas Cook and McCord Travel as well as by hundreds of small mom-and-pop agencies that choose to tap into AQUA's service bureau. -- If I already bought a ticket, can I exchange it for one offering a better fare? Rewriting airline tickets has never been easier, thanks to the new industry practice of charging a nominal fee (at press time: $25 for all airlines except Northwest's $50) to change a so-called nonrefundable ticket. Even if the fee drifts up to $50 across the board, you could still save by switching flights, routes, airlines or airports -- assuming you're flexible. Unfortunately, most travelers resist revising their plans. For example, when AQUA Software's Eastman monitored a major West Coast travel agency for 60 days, he found that fewer than 2% of fliers opted for lower-priced tickets when they were offered. In many cases, travelers didn't think the schedule juggling involved was worth the dollar savings. In even more cases, they stuck with the original flights because they wanted frequent- flier mileage credit, regardless of the premium. -- As airline mergers and bankruptcies mount, will I have fewer choices? Basically, yes -- at least among major carriers. But you might find alternatives on the handful of just-launched entrepreneurial airlines. Inspired by Southwest Airlines' success with low-cost, short-hop service, these niche carriers sport colorful names such as Reno Air, Destination Sun ! and Kiwi International. (Kiwi's founders have a sense of humor; they say they named the airline after the flightless New Zealand bird because the pilots came from airlines that had their wings clipped by the economy.) These new airlines can survive but only if they think small, says Kiwi's CEO Robert Iverson. Kiwi, which was launched in September, is offering flights from Newark to Atlanta, Chicago's Midway, and Orlando in an effort to serve customers who used Eastern, Midway Airlines and Pan Am before they closed down. ''We plan to penetrate high-fare markets and take about 10% of the business but no more,'' explains Iverson. -- Should I buy a ticket from an airline consolidator? In a word, no. Last July, New York City's Better Business Bureau investigated 20 New York-based consolidators -- out of the 30 or so in business nationwide -- and concluded that they weren't saving consumers money. Investigators were unable to purchase any tickets at the advertised fares for high-season flights, and they got the promised fares from only 20% of the firms for off-season travel. -- How can I beat the odds during the upcoming holiday period? You can't. In fact, fares are already averaging 200% higher than the lowest summer prices. Moreover, airlines will be eager to recoup some of their losses in the busy period between Dec. 15 and Jan. 1. So don't bank on bargains during that time. Your best holiday strategy is to duck. If you've saved vacation days for a year-end getaway, try to travel before Dec. 15 or after Jan. 1. For example, from Thanksgiving to mid-December, there are terrific deals on flights to the Caribbean and to Mexico. If you must travel during peak holiday time, here are some additional tips: -- ''Plan way in advance, and don't be afraid to tell the agent you want the lowest fare,'' explains Jeanie Thompson-Smith of Topaz Enterprises, a Portland, Ore. air-fare auditing firm. -- Best Fares' Tom Parsons suggests that if you want to visit Disney World and flights to Orlando are blacked out, consider landing at Jacksonville and driving the 150 miles. He notes, ''You can rent a car there for about $150 a week and save perhaps $150 a person on a long-distance air fare; that adds up for a family of four.'' -- At press time, a quick check of Florida resorts and airline routes showed that there had been no rate cuts because of Hurricane Andrew. Most operators happen to think, however, that if holiday bookings are down, it is possible that some Florida discounting may follow. -- Travel Weekly's Fredericks says, ''Forget the airlines entirely if fares are too high. Take a short trip by car. There are loads of hotels offering three- and four-day packages around the holidays.'' For example, round-trip air fare alone from New York to L.A. will cost about $880 for two. By contrast, a four-day jaunt for two by car from New York City to upstate Cooperstown, home of the Baseball Hall of Fame, runs $483, including nights at a bed-and-breakfast inn, plus a car rental. -- And, says Consumer Reports' Ed Perkins: If you don't mind playing long shots, just wait. ''Despite the usual blackout, we might see promotions advertised around the holidays, like the day after Christmas. But they're iffy -- you can't count on them.'' -- What's in store for 1993? Virtually all the experts agree that fare wars will continue in some form. ''The airlines have shot themselves in the foot,'' sums up Perkins. ''People now expect fare wars. With the exception of popular sun and ski destinations, watch for discounts of 25% to 30% on domestic U.S. and Canada flights starting in January.'' Other 1993 forecasts: -- Hawaiian Airlines (800-367-5320) has promised some type of fare sale every three months on at least 3,000 seats. Although Hurricane Iniki devastated Kauai, the other major islands were not disrupted. -- Southwest (800-531-5601) is offering a ''Friends Fly Free'' program through March 2, 1993. Buy one unrestricted fare, and you can take along a friend for free. -- Continental's ''Ski Free'' (800-634-5555) package is good at 10 Colorado resorts between Nov. 1 and Dec. 16, and April 1 to April 14. Package tours offering air fare, three nights' stay and two days' lift tickets go for $449 from Newark to Winter Park and $495 to Aspen. -- SAS (800-221-2350) offers a skiing package to the slopes of Lillehammer in Norway before the winter Olympians take over in 1994. The $995-per-person price tag (double occupancy) includes five nights in Lillehammer, one night in Oslo (90 miles to the south), as well as breakfast and dinner. Tours depart every Saturday from Jan. 2 through March 20. -- Aer Lingus' (800-223-6537) ''Irish Castle'' package includes air fare, rental car, three nights with breakfast in stately Dromoland Castle in County Clare and Ashford Castle in County Mayo for $769 a person from Nov. 1 through March 31.