(MONEY Magazine) – Homeowners in 37 of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas can expect that their housing appreciation this year will exceed inflation, topped by a 6.6% rise in Denver, according to a forecast done exclusively for MONEY by Regional Financial Associates (RFA), a West Chester, Pa. research firm. The big projected loser: Hartford, where prices will drop 1.5%. Overall, however, RFA looks for an average price increase of 3% this year, vs. 3.2% for inflation. Regionally, RFA believes cities in the Rockies, the Southeast and Texas will fare best, whipping inflation by two to three points or so on average. In top gainer Denver, the median price will rise from $100,200 to $106,800, as the area pulls in California emigres. ''Denver is attractive to Californians who lost jobs and firms fed up with that state's high cost of doing business,'' says RFA chief economist Mark Zandi. Over the next three years, Seattle, another city drawing Californians, will post the greatest price gains, with the median-cost home jumping 12.2% to $169,530. Miami, Houston and Salt Lake City will also score relatively healthy price gains this year. Zandi thinks Miami prices will rise 5.6% partly because Hurricane Andrew's destruction sparked demand for new homes; nearly 15,000 houses will be added by year-end. In Houston, prices will jump 5.5%, as the North American Free Trade Agreement brings business to the port city. And Salt Lake City's growth spurt, which created more new jobs than any small or medium-size metro market in '92 (13,500), figures to continue; house prices there will go up 5.5% as well. Cellar-dwelling Hartford's 1.5% drop follows a 19% decline from its 1988 peak, when the median-priced home was $167,600. Southern California's housing markets also will remain weak because of continued layoffs; prices will fall by nearly 1% in the Los Angeles metro area, for example. More positively, homes nationwide have become remarkably affordable. In roughly 80% of the 50 biggest metro areas, a family earning the median income can now afford the area's median-priced home, compared with 64% in 1989. Notable exceptions: Southern California and the New York City region, where the median price typically tops $175,000, leaving median-income households with about 25% less income than they need to afford such a home.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: Sources: Regional Financial Associates, National Association of Realtors CAPTION: NO CAPTION