GE's transparency applauded, outlook questioned

After a presentation, analysts and investors remain skeptical over stress testing and earnings measures used to determine losses.

EMAIL  |   PRINT  |   SHARE  |   RSS
 
google my aol my msn my yahoo! netvibes
Paste this link into your favorite RSS desktop reader
See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close)
By Katie Benner, writer-reporter

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) shares have been dogged by worries about GE Capital, and after a six-hour presentation on the finance unit the company quelled fears about transparency but could not put to rest fears about future losses.

On Friday, the day after the presentation, GE was down more than 6% while the Dow rose lightly in midday trading.

During Thursday's event, which included a 176-page presentation and question and answer period, chief financial officer Keith Sherin said GE Capital might not earn $5 billion for 2009 as previously forecast. But he said the unit would be profitable or break even in the first quarter and for all of 2009.

The presentation went a long way toward fixing the company's damaged credibility. "They're unfreezing relations with shareholders and closing the gap between what they disclose about GE Capital and what people want to know," says Peter Cohan, a venture capitalist, management consultant and GE shareholder.

Cohan says the company lost credibility with investors over the last year because it said it would not raise capital, would not lose its AAA, and would not slash its dividend and then had to backtrack on those statements, sometimes soon after making them.

"The presentation was like their Glasnost, and it should be beneficial over the long term," Cohan says.

GE gave unprecedented detail about how it runs each segment of GE Capital and how it stress tests these business lines and comes up with its capital cushion against losses.

The presentation also dispelled fears about the company's ability to borrow money in the public markets. It has raised 93% of what it needs to take care of the long-term debt that matures this year, and it is racing to raise money for 2010 before government programs to back debt expire this year.

Two worries still remain for analysts and investors like Cohan: stress testing and earnings quality.

For its stress test, GE Capital uses Federal Reserve projections that in 2009 unemployment will average 8.4% and the economy will shrink by 2%, and that in a worse case scenario unemployment will hit 8.9% and GDP will shrink by 3.3%.

Deutsche Bank analyst Nigel Coe points out that Deutsche Bank economists think GDP will shrink by 3.9% in 2009 and that average unemployment will hit 10%, leading him to believe that GE will come in at the lower end of expectations.

Nick Heymann, a Sterne Agee analyst and former GE auditor, says the company will likely have to raise its loss provisions over the next four to six quarters, leaving him to wonder just how feasible it is to place a value on GE.

As for earnings, Sherin says GE Capital will earn between $2 billion and $2.5 billion this year under a scenario whereby unemployment averages 8.4% and GDP contracts by 2%. He expects it to break even should unemployment hit 8.9% and GDP shrink by 3.3%.

A lot of that money comes from tax credits for losses taken at GE Capital. Under the best case scenario, tax credits account for up to $2.1 billion of the estimated $2 billion to $2.5 billion in earnings. Under the more severe stress case, tax credits would contribute up to $4.5 billion to the bottom line, allowing the company to break even.

"The main question that remains is, can the company earn its way through elevated losses on the portfolio without having to raise equity capital," wrote Credit Suisse's Nicole Parent. "Uncertainty around magnitude and timing of the losses at [GE Capital] make that difficult to assess."  To top of page

Company Price Change % Change
Ford Motor Co 8.29 0.05 0.61%
Advanced Micro Devic... 54.59 0.70 1.30%
Cisco Systems Inc 47.49 -2.44 -4.89%
General Electric Co 13.00 -0.16 -1.22%
Kraft Heinz Co 27.84 -2.20 -7.32%
Data as of 2:44pm ET
Index Last Change % Change
Dow 32,627.97 -234.33 -0.71%
Nasdaq 13,215.24 99.07 0.76%
S&P 500 3,913.10 -2.36 -0.06%
Treasuries 1.73 0.00 0.12%
Data as of 6:29am ET
More Galleries
10 of the most luxurious airline amenity kits When it comes to in-flight pampering, the amenity kits offered by these 10 airlines are the ultimate in luxury More
7 startups that want to improve your mental health From a text therapy platform to apps that push you reminders to breathe, these self-care startups offer help on a daily basis or in times of need. More
5 radical technologies that will change how you get to work From Uber's flying cars to the Hyperloop, these are some of the neatest transportation concepts in the works today. More
Sponsors
Worry about the hackers you don't know 
Crime syndicates and government organizations pose a much greater cyber threat than renegade hacker groups like Anonymous. Play
GE CEO: Bringing jobs back to the U.S. 
Jeff Immelt says the U.S. is a cost competitive market for advanced manufacturing and that GE is bringing jobs back from Mexico. Play
Hamster wheel and wedgie-powered transit 
Red Bull Creation challenges hackers and engineers to invent new modes of transportation. Play

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.