Treasury prices swing wildly on double-dip fears

10yearyield.top.png By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As economic reports and expert opinions offer varying views on whether the country is headed for recovery or a double-dip recession, the bond market is moving at the slightest provocation.

"We're at an inflection point, and Treasurys are the needle that's swinging back and forth in this mixed picture," said Bill Larkin, portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management.

Bond prices have soared this summer on concerns about a double-dip recession, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling as low as 2.47% last month from 3% at the end of July.

Downbeat economic data tend to send bond prices higher, as they're considered safe-haven investments. But August brought a flurry of corporate acquisition activity and slightly better jobs data, Larkin noted, and prices have fallen in the beginning of September.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 2.65% in late trade Wednesday, up from 2.6% Tuesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The yield on the 5-year note jumped to 1.46%, the 30-year bond increased to 3.73% and the 2-year note ticked up to 0.53%.

"There's too many people in fixed income right now, using Treasurys as money market alternatives and a safe place to stash their cash," Larkin said. "That money is temporary."

Those temporary players add to volatility in the bond market, Larkin said, noting prices rose Tuesday after three straight sessions of decline on worries about stress tests of European banks.

"The Europe news showed how nervous everyone is, and Treasurys are feeling the brunt of that nervousness," Larkin said.

Heavy supply is also weighing on Treasury prices, Larkin said, though a $33 billion auction of 3-year Treasury notes brought strong demand on Tuesday.

The government also sold $21 billion in 10-year notes Wednesday. Bidders offered to buy 3.21 times the amount of debt sold, which is a lower bid-to-cover ratio than other recent auctions of 10-year notes. Thursday will bring an auction of $13 billion in 30-year bonds. To top of page

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