Four out of five portals doomed, says cable expert
The Deal's Tech Confidential blog reports that former AT&T Broadband CEO Leo Hindery is predicting the demise or acquisition of four out of the five major portals today -- AOL, eBay, Google, MSN, and Yahoo. That's a gutsy call for a group whose combined market capitalization is $225 billion. But Hindery argues that much of that market cap rightfully belongs to content providers like CBS, Disney, and NBC Universal, and distributors like AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon, and that over time much of the portals' market value will shift to them.
That's big talk coming from a guy responsible for several bubble-era flops, writes Techdirt. At AT&T Broadband, Hindery helped seal the fate of Excite@Home, the Web portal and cable-broadband provider that went bankrupt after bickering between AT&T and its other cable partners. And his stint at Web-hosting provider GlobalCenter during the bursting of the telecom bubble was similarly undistinguished. Hindery's arguments today are as wrongheaded as his management moves back then, argues Techdirt: "People aren't going online to get Disney or Time Warner content -- but to email with people, to instant message with people, to read and post to blogs."
Do you think Hindery has a point?
what the hell does he know? He presided over two online businesses that went bankrupt! Time will tell if the Yahoo,Google,MSN portals are acquired or go out of business. AOL and eBay probably will . His views of portal sid e of online businesses are harken back to the 1990's.He needs to update his outlook. Besides he doesn't have a crystal ball nor is he psychic. His track record is spotty,to say the least. Further more, Verizon,Comcast,CBS,NBCUniversal,Disney more than likely will evolve as time goes on and continue to maintain market share.
No. AOL and Timewarner already tried the content thing a ma jig.
The gateway to the internet are google and yahoo and I do not see that changing without a significant shift and the barriers to taking traffic away from them are increasing.
I think Hindery mis-understands the users. The "content" is out available as selection thru portals. But that content is only a small share of what's offered thru them. It's less important than he thinks.
What a bunch of rubbish.
Hindery's track record although dismal should not necessarily be dismissed out of hand...there is some element of truth in what he is saying...just vastly overstated,,
IPTV is going to change the face of television and the Internet. Within 25 years, nothing in the industry will look the same.
He's a big blowhard- makes predictions most end up being wrong
Hindery is blinded by his own hubris. The content provided by the cable units is 2nd rate at best (I have Comcast) and still defer to Yahoo and Google for just about everything I need.
Not sure if I agree with his thoughts on where market cap will eventually migrate to...but I do agree that $225B for a few portals that have relatively little in terms of a financial / proprietary "moat" to protect that valuation - WILL result in a transfer of that wealth to new players.
Leo Hindery is clueless, I wouldn't be surprised to see Google or Yahoo buying a content provider.
is he retarded? i use yahoo and ebay and google every day. but aol and msn could dissapear i would never notice. so i guess 2 out of 5 ain't bad.
If I had to choose between Disney content or Google, how would I ever decide?!?!?
In my opinion, as a "pump and dump" man from the bubble era, Hindery has no credibility whatsoever, unless it is on the comparison of jail cell amenities.
It's all about the anti-network neutrality legislation that the content providers are pushing. If they can buy congress, then Leo will probably be right.
Maybe MSN and even AOL... But it's far from certain. For the most part these portals have and continue to develop content which is difficult to duplicate economically and efficiently. Example - Google Earth (and related Air Traffic Monitoring services) are just the tip of the iceburg, serving me in ways AT&T never dreamed of, would be scared to try if it did, and frankly, would screw up if it tried.
I always think of these portals like roads that lead me somewhere I want to go. The guys who own the roads are making all the money and the content providers are the ones who are providing content for little or no cost. As long as the portals can take
me to places that I want to go and provide me with the material that I am looking for then, I will link to them.
I think he's got it completely wrong. There is enough room for all of these players. While I expect these portals will continue to evolve they are no so big in the internet world I don't see them going away anytime soon.
I thought a lot but I couldnt understand how the market value of companies like Yahoo, MSN etc can shift to content providers like CBS et al. This is crazy.
I googled this guy and he predicted four years ago that Lucent and Nortel would be out of business shortly. He seems to love to make bad predictions about corporations that will go out of business. Too bad he didnt want to make those same predicitons about the Corps. that he controlled and went UNDER!!!!!
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