Stocks: New month, more fears
Wall Street just shut the door on the worst January ever and February is not looking much better.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After closing out the Dow industrials and S&P 500's worst January ever, investors might be hoping for a little breathing room before the next wave of negative reports hit. No such luck.
The week ahead brings reports on all areas of the economy, including consumer spending, retail sales, manufacturing and housing. The biggest focus will be the government's January employment report, due Friday, with companies expected to have cut at least half a million jobs during the month.
The private sector employment report from payroll processor ADP on Wednesday and the weekly jobless claims number Thursday will also be of interest in the lead-up to Friday's report.
Companies have been shedding jobs left and right this year in anticipation of a deeper recession than was previously expected. Last week alone saw companies from Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) to Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) announce more than 100,000 layoffs.
"We're having a secular contraction in consumption as we restructure the economy, and it's a painful process," said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer at Tradition Capitol Management. "It's been painful for a year and it's going to take at least another year."
Quarterly profits are on track to decline for a sixth consecutive quarter, according to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters. As of last week, 193 of the S&P 500 have reported quarterly earnings, and results are currently on track to have fallen 35.2% from a year ago.
"It's shaping up to be the worst quarter for earnings since we began tracking the results in 1998," said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Reuters.
In addition, around 34% of corporations are missing analysts' estimates, a rate that Butters said is higher than the historic average, which is in the 24% to 31% range.
Next week brings earnings from 102 companies, including Merck, Cisco Systems, Walt Disney and Motorola. (For details, click here)
Last week closed out the worst January on record for the S&P 500 and Dow industrials, yet another negative sign for Wall Street in 2009. According to the old adage, "As goes January, so goes the year."
According to Standard & Poor's, since 1945, when the market gained in January, it gained in the remaining 11 months of the year around 85% of the time. But when it declined in January, it declined in the remain 11 months about half of the time. (For details, see chart).
Monday: Personal income likely fell 0.4% in December, after falling 0.2% in November, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. With income down, spending is also expected to decline, with analysts forecasting a drop of 0.9% following a drop of 0.6% in the previous month.
Construction spending is expected to have fallen 0.9% in December after falling 0.6% in the previous month. The report is due shortly after the start of trading.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s manufacturing index is expected to decline to 32.0 in January from 32.4 in December, mirroring the declines in the recent regional manufacturing reports.
Tuesday: The December Pending home sales index is due Tuesday morning. It's expected to show no change after sliding 4% in the previous month.
January auto sales reports are due throughout the day.
Also Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on modernizing the U.S. financial regulatory system. In the afternoon, the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on lending and the housing market.
Wednesday: Payroll processing firm ADP releases its monthly private sector employment report before the start of trading. Economists forecast that 515,000 jobs were lost in January, after 693,000 jobs were lost in December. The report is seen as a harbinger to the bigger Labor Department report due Friday.
Also Wednesday, the ISM reading on the services sector of the economy is due. The index likely shrank to 39.0 in January from 40.1 in December.
Thursday: The number of Americans filing new weekly claims for unemployment is expected to rise to 592,000 from 588,000 in the previous week.
The first reading on fourth-quarter non-farm productivity is expected to have fallen to 1% from 1.3% in the third quarter.
Another government report is expected to show that December factory orders fell 3% after falling 4.6% in November.
The nation's chain stores will be reporting January year-over-year retail sales throughout the day. Sales are expected to continue the recent trend of declines as the recession cuts into consumer spending.
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. Last week, the Federal Reserve opted to keep a key short-term interest rate at an historic low and said in its statement that economic conditions have worsened.
Friday: Employers are expected to have cut 500,000 jobs from their payrolls, according to a Labor Dept. report due early Friday. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 7.5% from 7.2% in the previous month.
Tuesday: Dow component Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) reports quarterly results before the start of trading. The drugmaker is expected to have earned 74 cents per share versus 80 cents a year ago, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500) is also expected to report earnings in the morning. The telecom giant is expected to post results of nil per share after earnings of 14 cents per share a year ago.
Package delivery firm UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) is expected to report earnings of 86 cents after the market close, versus $1.13 a year ago.
After the close, Dow component Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) is expected to report earnings of 52 cents per share versus 63 cents a year ago.
Wednesday: Kraft Foods (KFT, Fortune 500) reports earnings in the morning. The Dow component is expected to have earned 44 cents per share after earning 44 cents per share a year ago.
CNNMoney.com parent Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 27 cents per share when it reports earnings Wednesday morning. Time Warner earned 29 cents per share a year ago.
Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) is due to report results after the close. The tech leader is expected to have earned 30 cents per share versus 38 cents a year ago. 
