Why recessions are so hard to predict
Forget the psychology mumbo-jumbo.
The short version here.
The even shorter, literacy-optional version here.
It's all Bush's fault. Everything is, don't you know tha by now?
I am so sick of this I am losing everyhting I own because this housing market and economy. We have bad peoplel calling the shots for this economy. loss of jobs poor credit and no equity in homes. my own house has lost 40K in price.. It will only get worse. I will never ever own a house gain in my life becuase of this.
real estate going down? not in nyc area and westchester county. Pat you probably dont own a peice of real estate and wish you did. Your article is one reason the market takes a hit, you make very rash opinions.
Since my very first economics class way back in undergrad days I have been saying that economics can't predict or calculate anything. Why? There are too many variables. Economics is a soft science (though, not a pointless one). Until a computer exists that can calculate about 10 billion variables to 99.9999999% probability, the mathematical modeling of economics is ludicrous. In my opinion, economics - mathematically - breaks down immediately after the supply/demand curve. This isn't to say quantitative efforts can't be descriptive, but they are completely useless at being prescriptive.
Economic prediction is no more or less accurate than the most intuitive people who attempt it. Frankly, I'd be more prone to believe a psychic who has taken a couple of economics classes.
Pat, the last link in your post is broken.
Link is fixed. Thanks for heads up, and my apologies.
The problem with predicting recessions right now is the data is so mixed. Some good news, some bad. The bottom line is employment is good and wages are increasing.
My theory on why it's different this time attempts to explain why the American economy is so difficult to get a handle on right now.
Real estate is definitely coming down, but not because Pat or anyone else says so - a housing market plunge has been in the making for the last 3 years at least. Doesn't anyone think it's a little crazy when people who make minimum wage are buying 400k and up houses,
Recessions are only hard for economists to predict, I mean admit. Most are paid to paint a rosy picture either for some CEO who is paying him to keep the CEO's bonus high or some political party or organization that is trying to appease the masses.
Recessions are a natural occurence in a free market. They usually follow good times. Depresssions follow execessively good times.
That is the way it use to be. Now the federal reserve wants to prevent any recession, and both the Democrats and Republicans are cheering them on. They have done that causing one mania after another, which is destroying our currency, and has a good chance of destroying our way of life as we know it.
the problem is that there are so many cheerleaders out there talking up the economy all the time
it has to hit the fed and media right in the face before they admit it
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