Surprise: Recessions don't spark business startups

chart_startups.top.gifBy Elizabeth Montalbano, contributing writer


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Think recessions spur laid-off workers to launch new ventures? Think again.

A study released this week by the Kauffmann Foundation found that the number of new businesses incorporated annually in the U.S. has remained remarkably consistent over the years.

"We have a surprisingly steady supply of new firms, despite frequent and sometimes sharp changes in economic conditions," the study's authors concluded. "No matter which data set one examines, any given year's total of new companies is consistent with other years, with annual numbers fluctuating only mildly."

Researchers Dane Stangler and Paul Kedrosky crunched data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Small Business Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, covering 1977 through March 2009. About 600,000 new businesses were formed each year during that 30-year period. The data includes formally established new enterprises as well as new franchise locations and other outposts of existing companies.

For more than a year, the potential for startup growth has been promoted as the silver lining of the recession.

The conventional wisdom goes that as people lose their jobs, they are inspired to launch that innovative little company that's been percolating in the back of their minds for years.

Recessions also lower the cost of entry for new companies and make customers more willing to explore less-expensive alternatives to current products or services they're using, said Rhonda Abrams, founder of entrepreneurial consulting firm The Planning Shop.

"I liken a recession to a forest fire -- it can be devastating, but can clear out weak and old growth," Abrams said. "Small upstart companies have a chance to get a hold better when their competitors are weakened."

But Kaufmann researcher Stangler said there just isn't data to back up that kind of 'hopeful thinking."

"It's not that the reasons behind that thinking are bad, it's just that from the evidence, we don't expect there to be a huge increase in the amount of startups or a decrease during this recession," he said. The Kaufmann Foundation, based in Kansas City, Mo., is a nonprofit organization focused on entrepreneurship research and advancement.

To check their findings from the last three decades, Stangler and Kedrosky went back even further, to census reports from the 1940s and 1950s. There, they found remarkably similar results. Only one year -- 1946 -- had a noticeable startup spike, a result the researchers attribute to the effects of the end of World War II and a flood of returning war veterans.

What's behind the consistency in startup launches? Stangler said two findings stood out: Even in down times, the U.S. has a fairly stable and consistent economy. Also, the number of working-age adults in the workforce fluctuates little.

But just because there's no data to prove that economic turmoil spurs business growth doesn't mean recession-era entrepreneurs should be disheartened, Abrams said. Citing her own research, she notes that the majority of current Fortune 500 companies were started during tough economic times.

The Kauffman Foundation has similar findings: More than half of 2009's Fortune 500 companies launched in bear markets, it reported in June.

"Even if the numbers of new companies are consistent, you have a better chance at being a big success if you form during a recession or a depression than in good times," Abrams said.

She also believes that when the dust has cleared, this recession will have spurred more new businesses than past downturns because the percentage of those who are unemployed will remain persistently high.

"More people will turn to consulting and other kinds of low-cost-of-entry businesses to tide them over," Abrams said. To top of page

Frontline troops push for solar energy
The U.S. Marines are testing renewable energy technologies like solar to reduce costs and casualties associated with fossil fuels. Play
25 Best Places to find rich singles
Looking for Mr. or Ms. Moneybags? Hunt down the perfect mate in these wealthy cities, which are brimming with unattached professionals. More
Fun festivals: Twins to mustard to pirates!
You'll see double in Twinsburg, Ohio, and Ketchup lovers should beware in Middleton, WI. Here's some of the best and strangest town festivals. Play
Questions & Answers



QHow does a florist sell more in this economy? We changed our business to designing weddings and events only, as the everyday flowers are not selling. We had to throw out too much product at the end of the week -- flowers are perishable! More
Get Answer
- The Flower Lady, Suwanee, Ga.
Overnight Avg Rate Latest Change Last Week
30 yr fixed4.23%4.19%
15 yr fixed3.26%3.27%
5/1 ARM3.70%3.38%
30 yr refi4.22%4.18%
15 yr refi3.26%3.26%
Rate data provided
by Bankrate.com
View rates in your area
 
Find personalized rates:
Index Last Change % Change
Dow 17,279.74 13.75 0.08%
Nasdaq 4,579.79 -13.64 -0.30%
S&P 500 2,010.40 -0.96 -0.05%
Treasuries 2.59 -0.04 -1.60%
Data as of 5:12am ET
Company Price Change % Change
Microsoft Corp 47.52 0.00 0.00%
Bank of America Corp... 16.95 -0.09 -0.53%
Oracle Corp 39.80 -1.75 -4.21%
The Coca-Cola Co 42.05 0.26 0.62%
Cisco Systems Inc 25.20 -0.02 -0.08%
Data as of Sep 19

Sections

7,000 Ravens fans traded Ray Rice jerseys for one with another player's name. The team gave vouchers after it ran out of replacement jerseys. More

It's really good to be Larry Ellison. The Oracle founder is stepping down as CEO, so maybe he'll have more time to enjoy his glamorous life. More

As Occupy Wall Street goes on its debt-abolishing tear, thousands of people across the country are begging them to forgive their loans. More

Market indexes are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer Morningstar: © 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer The Dow Jones IndexesSM are proprietary to and distributed by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have been licensed for use. All content of the Dow Jones IndexesSM © 2014 is proprietary to Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Chicago Mercantile Association. The market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. Most stock quote data provided by BATS.