The push for a debt commission

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Senate on Tuesday is likely to vote on a proposal that would create a bipartisan commission charged with reining in the country's debt.

The goal: Create a framework for forcing Congress to make some tough choices -- specifically tax increases and spending cuts.

In a surprise move Saturday, President Obama issued his support for the fiscal commission proposal, which was introduced as an amendment to legislation that would raise the country's legal debt limit by $1.9 trillion.

While the amendment now has 34 co-sponsors from both sides of the aisle, Obama's 11th hour support may not be enough to ensure the amendment's passage. Some top Democrats have been adamantly opposed to it, as have a large number of Republicans.

It's been a controversial proposal because the 18-member commission would have the force of law, meaning that Congress would be obligated to consider the commission's recommendations and vote for or against them -- no amendments, no filibusters. And they'd have to do so before 2010 is done.

It's not clear when the Senate will vote on the debt limit increase itself. Republicans are likely to vote against it; some Democratic votes are in question too. They don't want to vote for a debt-ceiling increase unless there is a clear signal that there will be a plan to address long-term shortfalls in the federal budget.

Those shortfalls are due in large measure to unsustainable growth in entitlement programs such as Medicare, as well as in interest due on the nation's debt.

The fiscal commission amendment was initially co-sponsored by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-ND, and Sen. Judd Gregg, R-NH, the committee's top-ranking Republican.

Should it fail, it's possible its supporters will reconsider a fiscal commission that Obama has been considering establishing by executive order.

But it's a weak substitute, because such a commission would not have the force of law -- lawmakers would have no obligation to even read the commission's recommendations let alone vote on them. Some Republicans have already signaled they would consider such a commission toothless and partisan.

Nevertheless, Obama is likely to mention his commitment to have a commission of one kind or another to help lawmakers address the growing deficits facing the country for decades to come in his State of the Union address on Wednesday evening.