Auction at negative yield still draws demand

10-year-yield.png By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- For the first time ever, the government auctioned off 5-year inflation-indexed Treasuries at a negative yield Monday, as investors bet rising prices will be an issue in the next five years.

For more than three weeks, bond traders have focused on forecasts that the Fed will announce a second major round of asset purchases in November in an effort to stimulate the American economy.

And during a $10 billion auction of 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, at a negative 0.55% yield, it was clear bond traders think the Fed will be successful at spurring inflation, said Kim Rupert, a fixed income analyst with Action Economics.

So why would bond traders opt for negative returns?

Unlike other Treasuries which have a set yield, TIPS are tagged to inflation rates, so if inflation goes up, the government pays a premium to the bond holder. In this case, investors must be thinking that "inflation rates will be problematic in five years, and the premium is going to be rather large," Rupert said.

While TIPS have a niche audience and $10 billion is still a rather small auction, the fact that a negative yield would draw demand is indicative of the overall trend driving demand for government bonds lately, she said.

Investors are speculating the Fed will announce another round of so-called quantitative easing in November -- and that policy would likely include a large buy of Treasuries.

The result of these purchases would, in theory, drive prices up, while pushing yields down on government bonds; hence the reason why investors have been trying to get ahead of the Fed by buying up long-term bonds at their current prices and yields.

What yields are doing: After falling nearly all day, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 2.57% late in the trading session, up from 2.56% on Friday.

The yield on the 30-year bond fell to 3.91%, from 3.94% Friday.

After the TIPS auction, yields on the 2-year note rose to 0.37%, and the 5-year note rose to 1.18%.

Auctions: Monday's price gains were contrary to the traditional activity seen during an auction week -- as traders usually try to push the price of bonds down ahead of major government auctions.

On deck for the rest of the week: a $35 billion auction of 2-year notes on Tuesday, $35 billion in 5-year notes on Wednesday, and $29 billion of 7-year notes on Thursday.

In the meantime, bond traders will continue to watch for more clues ahead of the the Fed's decision and mid-term elections next week. To top of page

Frontline troops push for solar energy
The U.S. Marines are testing renewable energy technologies like solar to reduce costs and casualties associated with fossil fuels. Play
25 Best Places to find rich singles
Looking for Mr. or Ms. Moneybags? Hunt down the perfect mate in these wealthy cities, which are brimming with unattached professionals. More
Fun festivals: Twins to mustard to pirates!
You'll see double in Twinsburg, Ohio, and Ketchup lovers should beware in Middleton, WI. Here's some of the best and strangest town festivals. Play
Overnight Avg Rate Latest Change Last Week
30 yr fixed3.99%4.00%
15 yr fixed3.06%3.10%
5/1 ARM3.20%3.19%
30 yr refi3.99%4.08%
15 yr refi3.07%3.18%
Rate data provided
by Bankrate.com
View rates in your area
 
Find personalized rates:
Index Last Change % Change
Dow 17,828.24 0.49 0.00%
Nasdaq 4,791.63 4.31 0.09%
S&P 500 2,067.56 -5.27 -0.25%
Treasuries 2.19 -0.04 -1.79%
Data as of 1:20pm ET
Company Price Change % Change
Kinder Morgan Inc 41.35 -0.97 -2.29%
Halliburton Co 42.20 -5.14 -10.86%
General Electric Co 26.49 -0.38 -1.41%
Apple Inc 118.93 -0.07 -0.06%
Bank of America Corp... 17.04 -0.07 -0.41%
Data as of 1:02pm ET

Sections

OPEC wants to squeeze U.S. shale oil producers by forcing prices even lower. It's a move even Tony Soprano would be proud of. More

Colorado's marijuana stores are following the lead of other retailers and offering big deals on pot. More

Natalie's Cakes and More has raised $84,000 through GoFundMe after protests trash store. More

Retailers are promising big deals this Black Friday, but are the savings actually worth the shopping mayhem? Test your deal-sniffing skills. More

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer.

Morningstar: © 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.

Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved.

Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2014 and/or its affiliates.