5 ways to know if the bull is over

Before it keels over, a bull market typically leaves a few road signs. Here's what to keep an eye on - from Money Magazine.

Oil prices
Oil prices
Before a bear: Oil prices often surge
Happened yet? Yes

Anyone who remembers the 1970s knows that rapidly rising oil prices can be poison to stocks. The quadrupling of those prices in the months following October 1973 (due to the OPEC embargo) helped send a market that was already reeling into brutal bear territory almost immediately.

Rising energy costs just before the 1990-91 Gulf War were bad news for the market too. That's because when oil becomes much more expensive, one of two things generally happens: stagflation or recession.

Those higher prices act like a tax on the economy, slowing growth. And because higher prices make the Federal Reserve think "inflation!" the Fed typically responds by raising short-term interest rates - something the stock market likes about as much as Nicole Richie likes dessert.

Fast-forward to today: Oil prices are up 20 percent year to date, approaching the record high of $78.40 a barrel.

"You have to expect that these rising oil prices will catch up to businesses and consumers," says Timothy Fidler, a portfolio manager with Ariel Capital.

Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer spending Corporate earnings growth
Report: Big-money investors at one-year high for risk aversion. (more)
Is the worst over? Here's a 10-point guide to understanding two harrowing weeks - and what's likely to happen next. (more)
But strength of markets, economy should prevent a recession, Treasury Secretary says in a news report. (more)
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Market indexes are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer LIBOR Warning: Neither BBA Enterprises Limited, nor the BBA LIBOR Contributor Banks, nor Reuters, can be held liable for any irregularity or inaccuracy of BBA LIBOR. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer The Dow Jones IndexesSM are proprietary to and distributed by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have been licensed for use. All content of the Dow Jones IndexesSM © 2014 is proprietary to Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Chicago Mercantile Association. The market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. Most stock quote data provided by BATS.