Auto sales: Weakness beyond Toyota

By Chris Isidore, senior writer


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Toyota's troubles are likely to get the most attention when automakers report February sales Tuesday. But the Japanese automaker's pain isn't likely to translate into big gains for its rivals.

Sales tracker Edmunds.com forecasts U.S. market share for Toyota (TM) will fall to its lowest point in nearly five years, and that sales will tumble 10% from year-ago levels.

Most other automakers, including General Motors, Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) and Hyundai Motor, are expected to post sales increases from a year ago. Overall, the industry should enjoy a modest gain in sales. Chrysler Group is the only other major car company that is likely to report a drop in sales.

But a small gain isn't very good when you consider that last February was the worst month for the industry since 1981.

"It's like saying the Detroit Lions were better this year because they had two wins rather than none," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry analysis for TrueCar.

J.D. Power & Associates is forecasting that industrywide sales are going to be up 8% from a year ago, but as was the case in January, fleet sales to businesses such as rental car companies should provide most of the lift. Sales to consumers are expected to be little changed from a year ago.

Most of the forecasts are for a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of about 10 million vehicles, which would make this the worst month since September for sales.

"Just when we were going to get going on a sales recovery, this pushes us back a little bit," said Toprak.

Experts agree that much of the gains at Toyota's rivals will be coming from sales to rental car companies rather than individual customers who might have considered buying a Toyota before the recall.

"Our view is that Toyota buyers are sitting back and waiting," said Jeff Schuster, director of global forecasting at Power.

It wasn't just recalls depressing auto sales, though. The snow storms that hit much of eastern United States likely depressed sales as well. Of greater concern to experts is that consumer confidence appears to be sliding backwards.

The Conference Board's survey of 5,000 consumers found them more worried about current economic conditions than at any point in the last 27 years, worse even than a year ago when economists feared a second Great Depression. Not surprisingly, consumers planning to buy a new car in the next six months also fell from the depressed levels of a year ago.

"We will have to wait until March to see if February is an aberration or a fundamental sign that the recovery in sales will be more subdued than hoped," said Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis at Edmunds.com.

Still, Schuster still thinks the industry is poised for better sales in the months ahead. J.D. Power just raised its full-year sales forecast to 11.7 million vehicles from its earlier estimate of 11.5 million.

"We're starting to see credit and leasing free up. The main economic numbers are looking better," he said. "Those are setting the foundations for a positive recovery." To top of page

Frontline troops push for solar energy
The U.S. Marines are testing renewable energy technologies like solar to reduce costs and casualties associated with fossil fuels. Play
25 Best Places to find rich singles
Looking for Mr. or Ms. Moneybags? Hunt down the perfect mate in these wealthy cities, which are brimming with unattached professionals. More
Fun festivals: Twins to mustard to pirates!
You'll see double in Twinsburg, Ohio, and Ketchup lovers should beware in Middleton, WI. Here's some of the best and strangest town festivals. Play
Index Last Change % Change
Dow 17,803.87 -6.19 -0.03%
Nasdaq 4,737.13 24.16 0.51%
S&P 500 2,066.88 3.38 0.16%
Treasuries 2.32 0.01 0.30%
Data as of 11:20am ET
Company Price Change % Change
AT&T Inc 34.74 -0.54 -1.54%
Bank of America Corp... 17.17 0.05 0.29%
Apple Inc 117.69 1.22 1.05%
Micron Technology In... 35.00 0.71 2.06%
Microsoft Corp 47.75 -0.23 -0.48%
Data as of 11:05am ET

Sections

Google removes 'Ass Hunter,' a homophobic video game, from its Android app store following a backlash from users. More

Russia's finance minister warned Monday that his country is losing up to $140 billion per year because of falling oil prices and sanctions with Western nations. More

Google removes 'Ass Hunter,' a homophobic video game, from its Android app store following a backlash from users. More

Obama doesn't have the authority to create a startup visa, but part of his reform announcement could include a workaround for entrepreneurs: 'parole status.' More

Nearly half of all Americans say there's a chance they'll have to work during a holiday between Thanksgiving and New Year's, according to a new poll. And one in four say they'll have to work whether they want to or not. More

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer.

Morningstar: © 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.

Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved.

Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2014 and/or its affiliates.