Is 5th time the charm for the S&P 500?
The market's most important barometer (not the Dow) is flirting with 1,100 for the fifth time in the past month. Can the S&P 500 finally close above that key level?
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| The S&P 500 has inched above 1,100 five times in the past month. But it has failed to close above that level since October 2008. |
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- To paraphrase the sage words of Spinal Tap guitarist Nigel Tufnel, investors are hoping that the S&P 500 goes to 11. Hundred, that is.
The S&P 500 rose Monday and cracked the 1,100 mark, the fifth time in the past month it has done so. But in that time, this key index has yet to close above that level.
In the tug of war that's taking place between market bulls and bears, the bulls could win a significant victory if the S&P 500 finally closes above 1,100. If it does so, that would be the first time since October 2008.
"Closing above 1,100 is not the be-all and end-all for the market but this has been a resistance point for the past month. It is a nice big round number and sometimes those numbers have significance," said Ryan Detrick. senior technical strategist with Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.
Sure, the round number milestones for the Dow tend to grab more attention because the Dow is both older than the S&P and trades at a higher point level. But the S&P 500 is a far more important market indicator.
This is mainly true since the S&P 500 has 500 companies in it opposed to the 30 in the Dow. So the S&P 500 represents a much larger swath of the economy than the Dow. Because of that, it is the S&P 500, not the Dow, that many investors use as a benchmark for their own performance.
The SPDR (SPY), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the S&P 500 commonly referred to as the Spiders, is routinely among the most actively traded securities on a daily basis. (ETFs can be bought and sold like stocks but hold a basket of securities as mutual funds do.)
So in many respects, the S&P reclaiming 1,100 might be a truer sign that this rally is for real than the Dow heading back over 10,000.
"Getting above 1,100 and staying there would be important. It would force a lot of people that are still selling stocks to come back to the market and that could push the market up between now and the end of the year," said Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist with BTIG, an institutional brokerage firm in New York.
O'Rourke makes an interesting point. While the stock market has headed sharply higher since March, it appears that some investors have chosen to sit the rally out. There is still a lot of skepticism about whether the recession is really over and if the economy is on the upswing again.
As I pointed out last week, a recent survey of individual investors showed that there are far more many bears than bulls right now.
This healthy dose of skepticism makes sense. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said that while he is confident about the market's prospects for the long-term, he's a little worried that investors may have gotten a little too ebullient as of late.
Ablin said that comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke Monday may also be giving investors reason to think that interest rates will remain near zero for the foreseeable future. That could also encourage more people to start buying -- regardless of how high stocks have run up in a relatively short period of time.
"The riskier the market gets, the more it's up. The hangover could wear off though. We're trading on technicals, not fundamentals and expectations for the economy and earnings are high," said Ablin. "This isn't a bubble but stocks certainly aren't cheap."
But the higher that the S&P 500 goes, the harder it may become to fight the positive momentum.
"It's undeniable that this is important. The ability to take out the 1,100 level sets the stage for a sprint to the finish. That could be the key that unlocks the door for a rally for the remainder of the year," said Richard Ross, global technical strategist with Auerbach Grayson, a broker dealer based in New York.
Ross said that if the S&P 500 closes above 1,100, the next level to look for would be 1,121. That's because 1,121 is the midpoint between the bull market high for the S&P 500 of about 1,576 in October 2007 and the bear market low of about 666 from this March.
And Ross said he's fairly confident that the S&P 500 will soon surpass 1,121. He points to the continued surge in precious metals as a positive sign.
Gold, of course, is generating tons of headlines. In fact, gold and the S&P 500 are now both trading right around the same number. Gold hit a new high of $1,133 an ounce Monday.
But Ross said he's even more encouraged by the fact that the price of other metals that actually have an important use in manufacturing, such as copper, silver and platinum, are also soaring. He said their performance probably has more to do with real demand, and not merely as a byproduct of a weaker dollar.
"The rally in commodities speaks to a global economic recovery. It's hard to make a bearish case for stocks if the nuts and bolts of the economy are doing well," he said.
Hopefully he's right.
Talkback: What do you think will finish at a higher level this year: gold or the S&P 500? Share your comments below. 
