Can the Web predict Oscar winners?
Hey Oscars buffs. So you loved The Departed? You can put your money where your eyes are and buy a contract at intrade.com, the division of Tradesports.com that offers bets on entertainment events. You'll be in good company.

But... last year the market predicted the award to go for Brokeback. But then there was a Crash. It could've just been a fluke. Should you trust in the collective wisdom of the Web, as represented both by bettors and the blogger-predictors? After all, Tradesports was nearly dead-on in predicting the Democrats' seat margin in the midterm election.

If you don't have any other particular reason to watch this Sunday, the Oscars will be an interesting test of whether the Web is smart enough to read into the minds of the Academy voters. Keep in mind that general political elections are different than Academy voting: Anyone can vote in an election, whereas the Academy is a relatively small number of expert voters with very different interests in movies than the general public. Maybe the Web is powerful enough to understand the Academy and last year was a fluke. Or maybe Academy voters even like to just mess with everyone by reading Tradesports and voting the opposite way. In any case, it's reason to pay attention.
Posted by Telis Demos 2:18 PM 0 Comments comment | Add a Comment

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer.

Morningstar: © 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.

Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved.

Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2014 and/or its affiliates.