Setting sail for an economic rebound
A big rally in shares of global shipping companies may just be a short-term trading play. But some think it could be a sign of a global economic recovery.
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| Shippers have been hit hard due to the global economic slowdown but the stocks have surged in the past few days on hopes that bulk cargo rates are heading higher. |
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- I took a look at some of the most actively traded stocks Wednesday morning. And the usual suspects were all there. Citigroup. Ford Motor. Intel. DryShips.
Wait a minute. DryShips? What is an Athens, Greece-based bulk shipper with a market value of less than $500 million doing in the company of these well-known American giants?
It's an interesting question. DryShips (DRYS), which surged more than 20% Wednesday morning, has been at the top of the actives list for the past few days. And shares are up nearly 140% so far this week.
It's not the only shipping stock on the move. Genco Shipping and Trading (GNK) were up 20% late Wednesday morning and more than 70% so far this week.
Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) shot up 25% Wednesday morning and has nearly doubled this week.
Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) had gained 20% as of late Wednesday morning and nearly 135% this week.
And all of these stocks have rallied on much larger-than-usual trading volume. So what gives?
Some analysts think that the rally in DryShips and its competitors is merely a sign that the stocks were beaten up too heavily during the sharp economic downturn this fall, which meant collapsing demand for the transportation of iron, steel and other commodities.
As such, the recent gains this week may be more due to momentum investors, and not a true sign that the world's economy is turning a corner. In fact, several of the stocks started to pull back later Wednesday after their hot start.
"There really has been no fundamental change here in the past few days. Shipping rates are still catastrophically low," said Natasha Boyden, an analyst with Cantor Fitzgerald. "People are leaping onto any glimmer of hope, which is normal. But I still think we have a dire situation."
Daily shipping rates for various bulk goods, which is tracked by something called the Baltic Dry Index, have moved higher in the past few days as well.
But the Baltic Dry Index is still 94% lower than where it was at its peak in mid-May. (Investors interested in tracking this index can find it at the daily market report section on DryShips' corporate Web site.)
Boyden also noted that mining giant Rio Tinto (RTP) announced it was laying off 14,000 workers Wednesday -- a sign that demand for iron ore and other commodities is still relatively weak.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist with Charles Schwab & Co., agreed that it was premature to think that the renewed interest in shipping stocks was a reflection that the economy had bottomed.
She said traders may have been buying the stocks due to the news of planned stimulus packages from China and the United States. Increased infrastructure spending is likely to be a hallmark of both plans.
"Right now, it's a function of the Chinese stimulus plan and U.S. stimulus plan since they are a near-term proxy for demand for iron ore and steel. It's not really a renewed sense of a rebound in the global economy," she said.
Still, others think that the recent pop in both the Baltic Dry Index and shipping stocks is an indication that commodity prices may soon stop their free-fall. If that happens, demand for shipping is likely to increase as well.
"The recent recovery is tied to some bottoming in the commodity market," said Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager with Hodges Funds, which in its small-cap fund owns DryShips, Genco, maritime-fuel supplier Aegean Marine Petroleum Network (ANW) and oil-tank barge operator Kirby (KEX).
"A lot of commodity prices have come down 50% from the middle of the summer. And even if supply and demand for commodities is less than it has been, I still think shipping rates will go back up," he added. "There is going to be commerce. People need grain, iron ore and coal."
Another issue at play is the thawing of the credit markets in the past few weeks.
Douglas Mavrinac, a shipping analyst with Jefferies & Co., said that global trade essentially stopped in the wake of the credit crunch because banks were unwilling to provide letters of credit to cargo providers.
But he thinks that this is starting to become less of a concern -- and this has happened more quickly than many investors expected.
"We have had recessions in the past but we never had banks stop issuing letters of credit for such a secure type of lending before," Mavrinac said. "Now, volume is picking up and rates are going up as banks work their way back in the market."
With this in mind, Mavrinac conceded that the recent rally is partly due to momentum trading. But he added that many shipping stocks are still good values right now. He believes many were priced as if the companies were going to go bankrupt and investors now are starting to realize that many of them may not go out of business after all.
Perhaps more important, all the experts I spoke to said the movement in shipping rates and shipping stocks bears watching. If the upward trend continues, it could in fact be an indicator that the anchor on the global economy has hit bottom at last and that it's slowly being reeled back in.
"There's no group that's more highly correlated with the global economy than shippers," said Marshall. "If you see this rally sustain itself, that is something to keep an eye on. Shipping is a leading indicator of the economy. Rates started to go down well before the world economy started to substantially slow down." 
