Stocks churn as dollar seesaws
Investors step back after a two-session advance as the greenback wavers and oil prices slump. Alcoa reports surprise profit.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks seesawed Wednesday, with blue chips weaker and techs a bit higher as a two-day advance petered out amid a mixed dollar, lower oil prices and some jitters at the start of the quarterly financial reporting period.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 6 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 3 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 7 points, or 0.7%.
Stocks rose Monday and Tuesday, with the broad S&P 500 gaining just short of 3%, recovering most of what it had lost in the previous two weeks. The sharp advance was typical of the seven-month-old rally, in which investors have used small selloffs as an opportunity to jump back into stocks.
But the rally ran into some resistance Wednesday as the dollar turned mixed and investors looked to the start of the third-quarter financial reporting period.
Many investors are waiting to see how the earnings turn out before they either pile back into stocks in a big way or back out more aggressively. Currently, analysts expect third-quarter profits to have fallen around 24% versus a year ago, with the heaviest percentage losses expected in the materials, energy and industrials' sectors.
Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) got things started on the right foot after the close Wednesday, reporting quarterly earnings and revenue that fell from a year ago but surpassed analysts' estimates. Alcoa's report is typically seen as the symbolic start of the reporting period, as it is usually the first Dow component to report.
While it was a positive omen, investors are likely going to remain on edge until the end of the month, when a majority of the earnings have been released.
"In the vaccuum of earnings news, Alcoa's results are good, particularly because they beat on revenue," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities.
"But Alcoa will only have a nominal effect on the market Thursday," he said, noting that it is the least-influential component on the price-weighted Dow. "Next week brings the heavyweights."
Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and a number of other financials are on the docket for next week.
Financials are expected to post the best results of any sector, due to easy comparisons against an abysmal third quarter of 2008. The sector is expected to see earnings growth of 59%.
The broad S&P 500 is expeced to see a drop in profits for the ninth quarter in a row, the worst since Thomson began tracking results a decade ago.
Wary after the run: Investors are cautious both about earnings and because of the fast pace of the run since the March lows, said Harry Clark, founder and CEO at Clark Capital Management Group.
"I think people are looking at the weakness in the jobs market and the run-up stocks have already seen, and they're a bit nervous," Clark said.
However, he said that the last few days have indicated that any small selloff will be greeted with renewed buying interest. Also, as the end of the year draws nearer, hedge funds and portfolio managers will have to turn more cash into investments. That could give the market a year-end boost.
Investors are aware that October has historically been a tough month, Clark said, citing the 1929 and 1997 crashes and major selloffs in the late '70s. But it can also be a positive month, particularly when it follows a strong September, like it did this year.
Besides, 2009 has been a year that has consistently defied historical trends.
Since bottoming at a 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 56%, and the Dow has gained 49% as of Tuesday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained nearly 68%.
On the move: Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500) were among the biggest decliners on the blue-chip average. They were also among the biggest gainers in the early-week rally.
But a late-session rally in a variety of financial stocks gave the market a boost.
World markets: Global markets were mixed after rallying in the previous two sessions. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 lost 0.6%, while France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX both lost around 0.3%. Asian markets ended higher.
Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen, reversing its recent slide against a basket of currencies.
U.S. light crude oil for November delivery fell $1.31 to settle at $69.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for December delivery rose $4.70 to settle at $1,044.40 an ounce after ending the previous session at a record $1,039.70. The previous record close of $1,020.20 was set two weeks ago.
Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.19% from 3.25% late Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
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